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Backgrounders
Asia News Agency


India's Growth Prospects - The Reality Of Euphoria

The study emphasizes the significance of the rise of the Indian economy and presents analyses of the lurking threat of social and political sustainability of the present pattern of growth. It identifies the propellers of growth – resurgent Indian corporate, key sectors like telecom, automobile, pharma and civil aviation, sustained per capita income, rising middle class, favorable demographic factor, cheap labour, improved energy scenario etc.

The study examines the risks to future growth with special reference to the limitations of the IT revolution, inadequate distribution of the labour force, labour market rigidities, rickety infrastructure, fiscal constraints, weaknesses in agriculture, slow pace of the reforms, weak human resource policies, lagging states, the democratic constraints of the Indian polity and other strategic challenges.

While emphasizing that a culture of innovation is fundamental for global economic leadership, the study argues that if India is to become a technological powerhouse, then innovation incubators are essential. Incubators nurture talent among scientists and engineers and provide support during the early years of innovation when the risks of failure are the greatest. In this respect, it sites the substantial progress made by China vis-a-vis India.

The study is however, optimistic about the medium term prospects of the Indian economy and such optimism is based on the continuing strength of many positive factors especially globalization and “ catch-up ”, the demographic dividends, the rising middle class, a vibrant entrepreneurial culture, positive expectations of future economic reforms and a generally benign international economic environment.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Kashmir Settlement - So near, yet so far

The Pakistan President, General Pervez Musharraf’s continued talk of ‘self-governance’ and ‘joint management’ to settle the long-pending Kashmir issue has given rise in hopes in certain quarters that a solution may indeed be in sight. But is it realistic to assume that India will accept the Pakistani proposals, given Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s clear-cut assertion that there can be no re-drawing of boundaries?

The Special Study which examines the entire gamut of issues concerning Jammu & Kashmir, right from 1947, seeks to shed light on the matter. This includes the origin of the problem – the tribal invasion of Kashmir in 1947, the State’s accession to India, UN resolutions calling for determining the people’s wishes, Pakistan using terror and infiltration to destabilize the State and Indian polity, blunders by Indian policy makers, the initiatives in the past few years to talk to representatives of the Kashmiri people and commencement of the composite dialogue with Pakistan.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Retail Sector - The Sunrise Industry

The developing countries are striving to achieve or maintain high rates of economic growth and employment. Crucial to reaching these goals is competition in product and factor markets which leads to greater choice, lower prices, and increased efficiencies in production which ultimately contributes to a country's overall growth and development. Promoting competition is immediately relevant to these countries as they adopt an open market-oriented policy regime in response to heightened competition resulting from regional and global integration. The competitive regime is also influenced by the politico-socio-cultural milieu of any nation.

The study focuses on organized retail in India. It provides an overview of the Indian retail sector and deliberates whether the Indian retail sector has really ascended the world stage. It also examines the possible hurdles that lie ahead.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Regional Trade Agreements in a Multilateral Trade Regime

One of the most striking developments in the world trading system since the mid 1990s has been the surge in regional trade agreements (RTAs).  From about 50 till 1990, the number of RTAs has crossed 300.  As trading within RTAs does not come under the purview of World Trade Organisation (WTO), this explosive growth of regionalism is threatening to emerge as an alternative to the WTO-led debate amongst economists whether RTAs are "building blocks" or "stumbling blocks" of the multilateral trading system.  In this backdrop, this study traces the reasons behind this resurgence to regionalism and surveys the literature on RTAs and its interaction with the multilateral trading system.  The Study aims at looking at these issues from the perspective of developing countries with special reference to the Indian experience of FTA/RTAs.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Extremism in India

Asia News Agency is proud to present its latest Special Study on ‘Extremism in India’. The relevance of the Study has increased after the stepped up Maoist violence in several States.

An attempt has been made to bring together a compendium of Left extremist organizations in India. These include the People’s War Group, the People’s Guerilla Army, the Maoist Communist Centre etc. In tracing the origin of the extremist movement the study explains what Naxalism stands for. It seeks to explain the ideology, the organization, the strengths, objectives and areas of influence of the extremist outfits. There is an attempt to analyze the political motives and their strategy to club resources towards a broad-based coalition that would threaten the democratic process.

The role of the State Governments and more importantly, of the Centre is also a focus area of the study. The study finally summarizes the status of the various groups operating in the concerned States.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


State of the Government: Uneasy UPA-Left relations

The last few months have witnessed an increasing belligerence in relations between the UPA Government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Left Front which with its 60 plus seats in the Parliament provides the necessary support to the minority Government from outside. Relations between the two sides have particularly soured after Mr. Prakash Karat took over the leadership of the CPI(M) from Mr. Harkishan Singh Surjit, who was close to both Dr. Singh and Mrs Sonia Gandhi. Mr. Karat loses no opportunity to accuse the Government of deviating from the Common Minimum Programme and reminding them that the Left was a watchdog and not the lapdog and that they could topple the Government if they moved away from the agreed programme.
Asia News Agency has compiled an exhaustive and in-depth study on what ails relations between the two sides and what could be the consequences for the stability of the Government and the reform agenda of Dr. Manmohan Singh.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


State Report - Uttar Pradesh

Asia News Agency is in the process of preparing comprehensive studies on all States and Union Territories of India. The studies would be in the nature and format of internationally recognised Country Reports. We are pleased to offer the first such Special Study in the series, on Uttar Pradesh, in the following standard format : General Overview, Formation of the state, Geography, Natural hazards, History, Culture and Customs, Population demographics, Castes, Language, Religion, Administrative districts, Judiciary, Executive, Political Overview, Party position, Party in power, Opposition parties, Economy, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Industry, Foreign investment, Exports, Environment, Tourism.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Nepal under King Gyanendra's direct rule - Maoist insurgency and stir for restoration of democracy

Since February 1, Nepal has been reeling under royal rule after King Gyanendra, known for his ambitions for an executive monarchy, sacked the Sher Bahadur Deuba Government, put the political leadership under arrest, imposed a state of emergency and consequent restrictions on civil liberties. The King's action, on the pretext of the Deuba Government's failure to hold elections, made difficult by the Maoist insurgency, has been condemned. The political parties are up in arms and there are almost daily street demonstrations against him. The Maoists have stepped up attacks even as he has been isolated from the rest of the world. India, US and the UK banned military supplies. Export of non-lethal military equipment has been relaxed but the overall ban remains in force. The King has not lived up to his promise made to Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh in Jakarta to take concrete steps to restore multi-party democracy.

The turmoil in Nepal clearly has serious implications for India. Trouble in Nepal could lead to exodus of Nepalese into India through the open borders while the Maoists of Nepal can forge links with Indian naxalites to wage the so-called people's war against the Government.
Asia News Agency's South Asia analysts have prepared an exhaustive study covering all the above aspects of the situation in Nepal and what awaits the King if he does not take early steps to return the country to civilian rule, the scope of the Maoists widening their areas of operation, the political parties forging alliance to mobilize the public against the monarchy while the King uses the Royal National Army to fulfil his ambition to restore the era when Prime Ministers were puppets in the hands of the King.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Indo-Pak roadmap to peace - begun by Vajpayee and continued by Manmohan Singh

India and Pakistan have embarked on a peace process which their leaders say is irreversible. President Musharraf's January 6, 2004 commitment to stop the use of Pak territory for terrorism against India, his conciliatory tone on the Kashmir issue, his visit to New Delhi and meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New York, the resumption of composite dialogue, the dozens of decisions to develop people-to-people relations, including the restoration of air, road and rail links, all point to an Indo-Pak roadmap to peace. This process was initiated by Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee.

Gen. Musharraf is responsive to Dr. Singh's suggestion of "soft borders" in Jammu and Kashmir territory. He is advising the Hurriyat leaders to open dialogue with Prime Minister Singh. All these changes in President Musharraf's thinking on Kashmir show his sincerity in viewing the issue from a new perspective of accommodation.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


International Trade in Textiles and Clothing - post MFA challenges and opportunities for India and developing countries.

The highly specialised and topical Special Study provides a useful insight into the global trade flows in textiles and clothing. It focuses on the sourcing pattern of apparel importing countries like the US and the EU, India's export competitiveness vis-à-vis other developing countries and the cost structure of the clothing & textile industry in select countries which can serve as pointers to the emerging international trade scenario. The data contained in the various tables in the Study is culled from the authentic sources which have been indicated under the relevant heads.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Extremism in India

An attempt has been made to bring together a compendium of Left extremist organizations in India. These include the People's War Group, the People's Guerilla Army, the Maoist Communist Centre etc. In tracing the origin of the extremist movement the study explains what Naxalism stands for. It seeks to explain the ideology, the organization, the strengths, objectives and areas of influence of the extremist outfits. There is an attempt to analyze the political motives and their strategy to club resources towards a broad-based coalition that would threaten the democratic process.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Post Assembly election, preparing for 2004 Parliamentary polls

The assembly elections to the four northern states in December 2003, have thrown a shocker verdict that is bound to have a profound impact on the future of Indian politics. Belying all predictions, the BJP has scored sensational wins in the contiguous heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh.

The Study analysis the election verdict. For the first time, the BJP avoided any talk of the Hindu nationalist agenda and focused on the economic feel-good factor. Does this imply the end of the road for Hindutva organizations? Is the BJP transforming itself into a mainstream party capable of taking on the Congress on its terms? The study looks at the possible issues that will dominate the national election.

How would the Congress strategists plan their fresh campaign; whether the defeat will spur efforts to form a credible Congress led coalition to match the NDA? The study examines the possibility of realignments and the role of regional parties. It also looks at the role the Third Front may play in the parliamentary election.

The study analyses the possibility of an early parliamentary poll and a real life scenario if elections were to be held now. It takes a look at a possible future verdict

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


SAARC and its track record : Issues before Islamabad summit

SAARC summit is taking place in the Pakistan capital of Islamabad on January 4, 2004. Prime Minister Vajpayee has broken a long silence to confirm his participation. The Study traces the birth of SAARC, its limited progress, its objectives, prospects of regional cooperation, the aims of SAPTA (South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement) and SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement), Pakistan’s apprehensions in opening up its market to Indian goods, and the prospects for the region if India and Pakistan rise above their bilateral bickerings and create an economic giant competing with ASEAN and EU.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Indian economy relishes its moment in global spotlight

A paradigm shift has taken place in recent months in the way India sees itself and the way rest of the world appreciates India. India's economy is likely to expand between seven and eight percent in the current fiscal year on improved agriculture production and a pick up in industrial activity. The study examines the factors for setting up an explosive growth rate, the performance of the agriculture, services, industrial and other sectors as well as the infrastructure bottlenecks. It critically analyses the fiscal situation in the States and at the Centre. The study analyses currency management by RBI, appreciation of the rupee, decline in interest rates, inflation trends and related aspects.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


India-Israel strategic partnership

Since the establishment of diplomatic rela­tions between them 11 years ago, Israel has emerged as the second largest trade partner of India in Asia and the second largest source of advanced military equipment, next only to Russia. The September 2003 visit of Israeli Prime Minister, a $1 billion annual trade turnover and a strong military relationship, have generated speculation of a significant shift in New Delhi’s West Asia. The study makes an in-depth examination of their present and past relations, how they prospered and what they hold for future. It also analyses Arab apprehensions, the emergence of a possible India-Israel-US axis and related issues.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Ayodhya : India’s most volatile religious dispute

The study discusses the history and origin of the dispute, the status of Ram and Ayodhya in the Hindu psyche, the post independence developments, the talks conducted between the two communities as well as the initiatives taken by governments. The study examines the politics of the dispute, the role played by Advani in reviving the age old controversy, events leading to December 6 – the day the mosque was demolished and the potential for communalising Indian society and politics. The study also analyses the positions of the BJP and the Congress on the issue, the dynamics of BJP’s relationship with the RSS, the compromise forced by a coalition government and the pressures from the VHP. The legal status and the report of the Archaeological Survey of India are also briefly discussed.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Ups and downs in India-China relations

Living in peace under the shadow of the border dispute

India and China went to war in 1962 over a territorial dispute. Since then they have lived in peace, uneasy at times. The 1993 and 1996 agreements to keep peace on the border and an earlier tacit understanding to keep the border dispute on the back burner helped to develop ties on other fronts.

Yet, China is showing little seriousness to resolve the border dispute. China also continues to nurture its nuclear and missile tie-ups with Pakis-tan. It is getting closer to India's smaller neighbours like Bangladesh and Myanmar through economic and military assistance as part of its policy of containing India through strategic alignments with countries in South Asia.
The Special Study traces India-China relations from the days of Nehru till the present times

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Economic profile of India and South Asia

The key question that the study seeks to analyze is whether India and its South Asian economies are in a position to influence global growth. In the process, the study looks at the strengths of the South Asian economies, the challenges that face them in economic and social development, their future prospects of growth, India along with China as growth engines, the functioning of the SAARC and the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA), the impact of the WTO etc. In addition, there are brief country profiles on India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Communalism in India : The Hindu-Muslim Divide

This Study traces the historical and present factors of communalism, the role of Hindu and Muslim fundamentalist, the communal riots and their impact on the Muslim psyche, the roles and policies of the Congress, the BJP and most importantly, the Muslim voting pattern.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Profile of Indian Press

This study lists all the major newspapers and journals published in India, both national and regional, including those published in regional languages. It provides details about their ownership, publishers, the circulation, their areas of influence, the constitution of their editorial boards etc. Most importantly, the study indicates their editorial policies and political affiliations. This ready-reckoner educates the reader on the nuances of the Indian Press and helps him maintain a correct prospective while reading specific newspapers and journal. This is our largest selling study and a must for scholars and others seeking to understand the Indian Media.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Kashmir : Initiatives, Options & Prospects

The Special Study examines the entire gamut of issues concerning Jammu & Kashmir, right from 1947, the signing of the Instrument of Accession, the UN resolutions, the 1953 & 1975 accords, the history of militancy from 1989, Kashmiri grievances, the autonomy resolution and its serious implications within and outside Kashmir, the Indian & the Pakistani positions, the options of the government and the prospects of peace and further talks.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Politics of Caste, Class & Dalits

No Knowledge of Indian Polity is complete without an understanding of the complex caste and class equations. The Study explains the traditional caste system, the social, economic and political changes effecting the caste hierarchies, the emerging class factors, the explosion in Indian society caused by Mandalisation, the crucial "dalit" (untouchables ) factor and how the various political parties are exploiting them. Traditionally exploited by the Congress, these social equations are being exploited by the BJP, the Communist and by almost all regional parties.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


Earlier Studies

1. Kashmir : Initiatives, options, prospects

Events in Jammu and Kashmir have unfolded at a fast pace. It all started with the offer of talks by the Centre with the Hurriyat. Unnerved and not wanting to be marginalised, Dr. Farooq Abdullah played the autonomy card seeking, through a resolution passe d by the Assembly, a pre-1953 status for the State. This would imply restricting the Centre's powers to Defence, Foreign Affairs and Communications. This was rejected by the Union Cabinet lock, stock and barrel saying it can only go as far as the 1975 Indi ra-Sheikh Abdullah accord and consider further devolution of powers.

While talks on devolution are yet to commence, negotiations on the modalities of enforcing a cease-fire began with the Hizbul Mujahideen, a Pakistan based largely Kashmiri militant group, which had earlier announced a unilateral cease-fire. This was a dramatic development in that it was the first time that any kind of talks had taken place with militants. Many observers saw in these developments efforts and initiatives by the US and the ground work prepared by intelligence agencies and emissaries. They also saw in this a pattern which could lead to a solution to the Kashmir problem. But the road to peace will be long and difficult as the massacre of 100 people on August 1 and the car bomb blast in Srinagar on August 10 indicated. Pakistan's dubious role was evident in the quick U-turn taken by Hizbul in calling off the cease-fire and talks when India declined its suggestion to include Pakistan in the talks. At present there is stalemate as well as hope.

The Special Study examines the entire gamut of issues concerning Jammu & Kashmir, right from 1947, the signing of the Instrument of Accession, the 1953 & 1975 accords, the start of militancy, Kashmiri grievances, the autonomy resolution and its se rious implications within and outside Kashmir, the options of the Centre, the prospects of peace and further talks with the Hizbul Mujahideen or Hurriyat and more.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


2. Pakistan's intrusion into Kargil and its implications

The high altitude and high-decibel undeclared war in Kargil sector of Kashmir where the Indian ground and air action flushed out hundreds of Pakistani regulars and the battle hardened Afghan mercenaries has ended with the total withdrawal of forces by Pakistan. At one stage the conflict threatened to escalate into an all-out war between India and Pakistan with nuclear ramifications. The developments both on the military and political fronts took place at such a fast pace that it was difficult to comprehend the seriousness of the conflict, the extent of Pakistani involvement, its hidden motives of taking peace in Lahore and preparing for war in Kashmir, the strategic importance of Kargil as the lifeline between Leh and Srinagar, the Indian intelligence failure, the implications of India launching the air strikes, Pakistan questioning the sanctity of the Line of Control in Kashmir, and its Foreign Secretary threatening to use nuclear weapons if the need arose.

The international option, led by the United States, was one of understanding the Indian action against the mercenaries and reprimanding Pakistan for upping the ante by crossing the Line of Control in Kashmir. The Pakistani action leaves many questions unanswered.
The study was prepared at the height of the Kargil war.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


3. Indo-Pak dispute over Kashmir : Root cause of all troubles

Few bilateral disputes have lasted so long, been so intense and acccomplished so little. Two full scale wars, frequent armed confrontations along the Indo-Pak border, and over eleven years of Kashmiri militancy have not induced either India or Pakistan to shift from their positions of five decades. Kashmir is now being seen as an issue on which a nuclear war can also break out between the two countries.

The study goes into the claims and counter-claims of India and Pakistan on Kashmir, the State's accession to India by the then Hindu ruler after the Pakistani sponsored tribal raids soon after the partition of India in 1947; the special status of the Kashmir under Article 370 of the Constitution and how it was eroded by various governments at the Centre. The study goes into the mistake committed by India in taking the Kashmir matter to the UN, Pakistan's exploitation of the UN resolutions without honouring its own part of the documents; its sponsorship of insurgency and its attempts for foreign mediation etc.
The Special Study is a historical perspective of the Kashmir dispute.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


4. Nuclear test and after: Weaponisation and quest for nuclear status

The May 11-13, 1998 nuclear blast made India the sixth nuclear weapons state. Despite adverse international condemnation, the threat of a matching response by a stunned Pakistan, American and Japanese announcement of economic sanctions, the Vajpayee Government is determined to go ahead with India's programme of weaponisation and demand its recognition as the sixth nuclear weapon State by the five nuclear powers. At that time, in 1998, the acquisition of nuclear weapons techology was being justified as giving the country a nuclear deterrent to meet the security concerns posed by its two neighbours withb nuclear capability. No amount of pressure to sign the CTBT in its present form deterred India to demand that it will sign only as a nuclear weapons State and on its term.

The nuclear tests together with the go-ahead given for the advanced version of the Agni missile will give India's defence forces greater credibility and perhaps push India as a countervailing force against China, something the USA has been pushing for notwithstanding its reservations on India going nuclear.

Asia News Agency prepared this Study in May 1998 on India's long leap forward in the nuclear field, giving an exhaustive background into India's mastery over a range of nuclear weapon technologies and delivery systems, the various nuclear facilities in India which helped it make the bomb and produce the fissile material, its quest for nuclear weapons programme in response to Pakistan's clandestine development of nuclear arsenal and the threat posed by China, the international pressure to sign NPT and CTBT, the Indian refusal to bow to such pressure, BJP's commitment to give India a nuclear bomb, the future programme of weaponisation, the international repercussion and the force of sanctions, the Pakistani threat of matching response, the fears of India's relations with China deteriorating over the nuclear test and with the US and the West over refusal to sign CTBT.
The study was prepared immediately after India exploded the nuclear bombs.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


5. India's Space programme

The Study indicates the organisational structure of the Department of Space, the various units in India, the satellite programme(INSAT I - II) and its utilisation, the National Natural Resources Management System ( NNRMS), the Launch Vehicle programme (ASLV, PSLV, GSLV) and its military/ commercial spin-offs, the military significance of the missile programme (Agni, Prithvi, Trishul, Akash, Nag), India's views on the MTCR etc.
The study was prepared in 1996.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency


6. India's resistance to CTBT: Its nuclear weapons option and capacity

This is an exhaustive Study on the stand taken by India at the Disarmament Conference, the compulsions behind swimming against the international current in favour of the global test ban treaty, the kind of American pressure it would be confronted within the coming days, the American duplicacy of not practicing what it preaches, the national consensus in India against the CTBT, the case of building nuclear weapons, as also the various kinds of nuclear facilities like nuclear reactors, fast breeders, spent fuel reprocessing plants, heavy water manufacturing capabilities and the other paraphernalia which has been built up to give the country nuclear weapons once a political go ahead is given.

The study was prepared at the time of the Disarmament Conference in 1996, but the arguments put forward by India at that time as well as the logic of India still not signing the CTBT remain the same.

Asia News Agency
Asia News Agency





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