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A calculated move?

The Hindustan Times 15-11-2003

As in cricket, confidence can be a recipe for success in politics. The trick is to take the battle into the opponents' camp by choosing the time and place of action.

Chandrababu Naidu seems to have decided to do just that by opting for elections well ahead of schedule. He could easily have waited, as most chief ministers prefer to do if only because no one can be absolutely sure of the voters' mood. But if Mr Naidu has chosen to buck the trend, it is obviously because he feels he can make it at this point of time. He may be wrong, but there are several factors which he must have taken into consideration.

On top of the list is evidently the expected sympathy factor for him after the Naxalite attempt on his life. Irrespective of whether the electorate will believe the Telugu Desam's charge about the Congress not cooperating fully in tackling the menace, the ruling party is probably banking on fostering the belief that a change of guard at this stage will hamper the government's anti-Naxalite programmes, even if they haven't been conspicuously successful so far. The second reason is apparently to delink the state elections from the parliamentary poll so that the Telugu Desam doesn't have to pay for the BJP's perceived lapses. In this respect, Mr Naidu can be said to be persisting with his policy of being the BJP's ally but not a friend.

But the third, and perhaps the most important, calculation is that the Telugu Desam wants to wrong-foot the Congress. The latter will, of course, claim that it is ready for the battle and, given its long record in politics, the party may well put up a creditable fight. It can also benefit from any positive outcome in next month's assembly polls. But it will still have to counter the adverse fallout from the infighting in Kerala and the less than cordial relations with the NCP in Maharashtra. The stamp paper scam will also be a handy weapon in the hands of the Congress's opponents. On his part, Mr Naidu will have to cope with the tragedy of the farmers' suicides, which have taken much of the sheen off his cyber-style governance. All in all, it may be a closer fight than what Mr Naidu probably thinks.